Photo Shutterstock Like living organisms, states perish sooner or later. Philosophers, historians, and archaeologists have been pondering why this is and whether there is a law behind this disappearing for millennia. An international team of scientists led by Aquatic Ecology professor Marten Scheffer has discovered such a law.
The team inventoried the lifespan of some 324 states over the last four millennia until 1800. The most recent states were excluded. In part because they still exist but also because the dynamics of states in our modern times have become fundamentally different. So-called survival statistics were applied to these 324 states.
Hazard curve
This means the ‘hazard curve’, Scheffer explains. ‘This is a method that is frequently used in medical sciences. You calculate how the risk of all cause death varies from mortality ages. If you fall or contract COVID, it makes a big difference whether you are twenty or ninety.’ By viewing civilisations as living organisms, Scheffer gains unusual insights.
From the moment of their emergence, the risk of a state’s perishing increases significantly, peaking at 200 years. After this, it levels off. ‘Some states die young, for example, in turbulent times in China. But others survive for a long time.’ How the state is organised is of very little consequence, Scheffer says. ‘There is very little difference between the statistic chances of survival between different constitutional forms.’
Some states die young, for example, in turbulent times in China
Marten Scheffer, professor of Aquatic Ecology
The statistical link does not reveal anything about the reasons behind the demise of civilisations. Scheffer thinks that reduced resilience in older states may be part of the cause. Reduced flexibility causes states to reach a pivotal point, after which demise is unavoidable. This so-called tipping points theory, with which Scheffer gained renown, applies here as well.
Indications
This theory argues that reactions to disruption become increasingly slow near the tipping point. Scheffer states that there are strong indications that this is also the case for states. The publication in PNAS cites a few examples, but these do not qualify as irrefutable evidence. Scheffer: ‘Such data is unfortunately not available for most pre-modern states. Whether the lifespan of states currently in existence also meets the 200-year rule is unclear. Current global society differs significantly from historical societies. Modern technology and international economic collaboration may have a stabilising effect. Hence, results achieved in the past are no guarantee for the future/ But neither can it be excluded,
